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Bearish views on the stock market culminated in the sale of an estimated record of $40 billion of S & P 500 stock index futures over the past five sessions, but that selling pressure is about to ease, according to a note from the Goldman Sachs trading desk. Hedge funds that use a managed futures strategy (Commodity Trading Advisors, or CTAs) recently unwound positions in S & P 500 futures at the greatest speed and magnitude "on record," Goldman said. With most of those positions now squared away, however, Goldman claims "we are closer to the end of this sell pressure than not." Goldman said lower risk, lowest cost trades are available in one-month call options on the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust , Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund and SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust . Greater returns might come from stocks that Goldman added to its "conviction list" Monday, such as Nvidia , Cintas and Quanterix Corp. (Goldman removed Salesforce and Johnson Controls from the "conviction list" this week.)
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Salesforce, Michael Bloom Organizations: Trading Advisors, Dow Jones, ETF Trust, Health, Fund, Consumer, Trust, Nvidia, Quanterix Corp, Johnson
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading. Sphere Entertainment — Shares of the media and entertainment company climbed 11.1% in midday trading after a U2 show debuted its Las Vegas Sphere venue Friday night. Bitcoin stocks — Stocks tied to digital currency trading advanced in lockstep with a rally in crypto prices. Instacart — Maplebear, the food delivery company doing business as Instacart, fell 9.2% in midday trading. The Wall Street bank said investors should buy the dip after the stock's underperformance in the first half of 2023.
Persons: — Stocks, MicroStrategy, , — Maplebear, Gordon Haskett, Insulet, Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Truist, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Pia Singh, Michelle Fox, Sarah Min, Scott Schnipper Organizations: Madison Square Garden, , Riot, Marathon, Discover Financial, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Coeur Mining, Hecla Mining, Harmony, Mining, Gold Resource, Barclays, Norfolk Southern, Bank of America, Nvidia —, Nvidia, Apple, JPMorgan, UBS Locations: Las Vegas, lockstep, Coeur, Wall
CNBC Daily Open: Long-term prospects look dim
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineA smattering of positive developments helped investor sentiment yesterday. According to the latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors, which measures retail investors' sentiment for stocks over the next six months, overall bearishness climbed from 34.6% last week to 40.9%. — CNBC's Scott Schnipper contributed to this report Correction: An earlier version of this report misspelled Rick Rieder's name.
Persons: Michael Nagle, Treasurys, yield's, it's, , Brent, — CNBC's Scott Schnipper, Rick Rieder's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, . West Texas, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, AMD, American Association of, Alpha, Treasury, Federal Reserve Locations: New York
Artificial intelligence is capable of helping solve some of the world's biggest problems and could potentially surpass the intelligence of humankind, according to SoftBank's Masayoshi Son. "Mankind was the smartest animal on the earth — AI is going to surpass, and surpass big time." The SoftBank founder and CEO called himself a "big believer" in AI, adding that Arm is a "core" beneficiary of the AI revolution. Arm's initial public offering Thursday may bring an end to a nearly two-year-long drought in large-scale technology initial public offerings. I'm optimistic that AI is going to solve the issues that mankind couldn't solve in the past."
Persons: Masayoshi, SoftBank's, CNBC's David Faber, Mankind, Son, he's, , Scott Schnipper Organizations: Arm Holdings, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, University of California, Forbes, Yahoo Locations: Tokyo, Berkeley
Bullish sentiment among individual investors regarding the outlook for stocks over the next six months surged to 42% in the latest week, from 33.1% last week, and the first time the measure's been above the historical average (37.5%) since early August, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey. Bearish sentiment sank to 29.6%, a four-week low, vs 34.5% last week. Neutral sentiment fell to a seven-week low of 28.2% from 32.4% last week. Bullishness also climbed in the weekly Investors Intelligence poll of financial newsletter editors and advisors earlier this week, rising to 49.3% from 43.1% last week. Bearishness rose a touch, to 21.9% from 20.8%, while those in the correction camp narrowed to 28.8% from 36.1%.
Persons: Bullishness, contrarians, — Scott Schnipper Organizations: American, of, Intelligence
But the company posted $33.85 billion in quarterly revenue, under the $34.13 billion anticipated by analysts. Planet Labs — The satellite imagery stock slipped 2.6% in premarket trading after delivering a weaker quarterly report than expected on Thursday. DocuSign — The electric signature stock advanced 2.4% premarket on the heels of a stronger-than-expected quarterly report released Thursday. The Wall Street firm said Snowflake is in an advantageous position with "best-in-class growth rates" and is set to benefit from increased demand for artificial intelligence applications. The Wall Street firm cited First Solar's strong growth message during its investors day.
Persons: Kroger, LSEG, DocuSign, Davidson, Snowflake, Mizuho, RH —, Gary Friedman, , Yun Li, Sarah Min, Jesse Pound, Michelle Fox, Scott Schnipper Organizations: Planet Labs, LSEG, Deutsche Bank, Mizuho, Gilead Sciences, Bank of America Locations: Gilead
Sure Nvidia , the leading artificial intelligence play, has rallied 17% in the third quarter. But little Chicago-based Telephone & Data Systems — the parent of U.S. Cellular, with a market value just 0.18% of Nvidia's — has far and away scored the biggest stock market gain this quarter, soaring 161%. That's the largest advance of all the stocks in the S & P 500, S & P Midcap 400 and S & P 600 small-cap indexes — combined. The other 17% of U.S. Cellular is publicly traded and has risen a similar amount to TDS this quarter. TDS NVDA,GOOGL,.SPX mountain 2023-06-30 Telephone & Data Systems vs Nvidia, Alphabet and S & P 500 since June 30, 2023 To say Telephone & Data Systems is marked by humble beginnings is an understatement.
Persons: , FactSet, Leroy Carlson, JPMorgan's Philip Cusick, Cusick, Carlson, Michael Bloom Organizations: Big Tech, Nvidia, Data Systems, U.S . Cellular, Wall, TDS, U.S, Cellular, USM, Verizon, Mobile U.S Locations: Chicago, U.S, Wisconsin
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineRising U.S. Treasury yields are straining stocks. All three indexes closed below their 50-day moving average — the first time for the Dow since June. All indexes are still above their 200-day moving average.
Persons: Michael M, That's, , bullishness, It'd, — CNBC's Scott Schnipper Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, CNBC, Treasury, it's, Fed, Investors, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Trading, American, of, Investor Locations: New York City, U.S, There's
A pool of energy service stocks are likely to rally through year-end thanks to fatter profit margins leading to quarter-over-quarter earnings growth and higher price-to-earnings multiples, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a Tuesday note to clients. Service stocks as a whole have far outperformed the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF this year, Goldman noted. OIH XLE 3M mountain Energy service ETF vs Energy ETF over past three months. SLB : SLB is benefiting from increased spending on oil and gas exploration and production in the Middle East. Other energy service stocks Goldman also rates a buy are Halliburton , MasTec and Expro Group Holdings .
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ati Modak, Brent, Baker Hughes, BKR, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Energy, VanEck Oil Services, Companies, bbl, Weatherford, Halliburton, MasTec, Expro Group Holdings
Shares in Curtiss-Wright , which makes sensors, controls, subsystems and mission critical components for aircraft, have already climbed about 24% in 2023. CW 1Y mountain Curtiss-Wright shares over the past year. The "risk reward skews positive" on Curtiss-Wright shares, the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a Sunday note, upgrading the North Carolina manufacturer to overweight from equal weight. "The Pivot to Growth continues and endmarket demand remains robust, positioning CW for underappreciated topline expansion," Morgan Stanley said, referring to management's strategy. Curtiss-Wright's defense electronics business could grow at a 13% compounded annual rate through 2024 in light of heightened Defense Department outlays and reduced supply chain pressures, Morgan Stanley said.
Persons: Glenn Curtiss, Wilbur, Orville Wright, Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley, Wright, Morgan, Curtiss, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Curtiss, Department Locations: Friday's, North Carolina
Western Alliance Bancorporation of Phoenix left its dividend unchanged at 36 cents a share in May and yields 3%. As of Friday, the bank's common stock still yields 7.1%, albeit down from 8.5% as recently as May. Comerica Bank in Dallas pays a dividend equivalent to a 5.5% yield, down from 7.9% in May. The banks' yields have fallen as the stocks have recovered some of their losses from earlier in the year. To judge the safety of bank dividends, take a look at their dividend payout ratios , which measure the percentage of earnings paid out in dividends.
Persons: Janney Montgomery Scott, Janney, Daniel Cardenas, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance, Truist Financial Corp, Rhode, Financial, Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Comerica Bank, Heritage Commerce, Northrim BanCorp, Financial of, National Bancorp of Locations: Phoenix, Charlotte , North Carolina, Cleveland, Dallas, 2H23, Los Angeles, San Jose , California, Alaska, Financial of Ohio, National Bancorp of New Jersey
Citigroup's Atif Malik initiated research coverage of Apple late Thursday with a buy recommendation and a $240 price target, the highest on Wall Street among more than 30 analysts who cover the iPhone maker, according to FactSet. Apple rose another 0.2% postmarket Thursday after closing at a record $189.59 and approaching a $3 trillion market capitalization. Malik's price target implies further appreciation of another 27% on top of the 46% advance the stock has already scored in the first half of 2023. Apple already exceeds Wall Street's consensus price target of $187.19, according to FactSet. The prior Street-high price objective was Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives' $220, FactSet shows.
Persons: Citigroup's Atif Malik, Malik, Dan Ives, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, Wall, Citigroup, Wedbush Securities
Pioneer Natural bought Parsley Energy at an 8% premium. Devon Energy bought WPX Energy at a 3% premium. Bilson points to Yellen last week highlighting a likely decline in earnings when banks report second-quarter earnings next month. That's already reflected in plenty of well-known banks "now trading with mid-single digit forward EPS multiples" as they are suddenly forced to pay more for their deposits, Bilson wrote. There are other hurdles standing in the way of bank deals, Bank of America analysts led by Ebrahim Poonawala said Monday.
Persons: Janet Yellen, there'll, Don Bilson, Gordon Haskett, Bilson, Ebrahim Poonawala, dealmaking, Poonawala, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First, Federal Reserve, Dominion, Chevron, Noble Energy, ConocoPhillips, Concho Resources, Energy, Devon Energy, WPX Energy, Yellen, Bank of America, Regulators, U.S . Department of Justice, Federal Trade Commission, MTM Locations: U.S, Wall, Silicon, Toronto, Concho
Part of Suttmeier's optimism is based on the S & P 500 price chart showing a bullish "cup and handle" formation — the cup is U-shaped and the latest three-day pullback is the handle — which serves to confirm and, perhaps even more importantly, extend the earlier advance. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 performance over past 12 months. "We view the breakout above 4200 on the SPX as a FOMO rally. The net long position for asset managers in SPX e-mini futures shows a sharp increase in recent weeks to suggest that FOMO is catching on with institutional asset managers. The only caveat Bank of America offered to its bullish call was that the Nasdaq-100 , Russell 2000 , Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite indexes have failed to break above their own resistance points, "which is a tactical risk."
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Russell, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of, Bank of America, SPX, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: SPX
For now, it's not a brighter economic picture or an exuberant earnings outlook pushing stocks higher. Another reason that some investors have come back to stocks is simply because the S & P 500 ended the week more than 23% above last October's low. "The next level of resistance is above 4,500 on the S & P. Historically, the market gains 14.5% on average between the 20% threshold level and the next decline of 5% or more. "Inflation peaked in June of last year and has been rapidly declining over the past 12 months. Trading the week after is often treacherous, Hirsch said, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling in 27 of the past 33 years and the S & P 500 down in 23 of 33 years.
Persons: it's, Sam Stovall, Clinton, Wells Fargo, Chris Harvey, Harvey, Jay Hatfield, Price, CarMax, Stovall, Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch, Dow Jones Industrials, York Fed's John Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Avid Bioservices, Patterson Cos, Christopher Waller, Michael Bloom, Fred Imbert, Alex Harring Organizations: Fed, CFRA, Microsoft, Infrastructure Capital Management, Consumer, PPI, FedEx, Darden, Dow, Housing, Financial, Enerpac, Avid, Banking, Accenture, Commercial Metals, P, PMI Locations: New York, York, Dublin
The betting is also that the latest inflation reading for May that will be reported Tuesday, just as the two-day Fed meeting gets underway, will show additional progress in the fight against higher prices. Those views have helped power a broader stock market rally on Wall Street this month. In fact, the combination of the narrow stock market rally in 2023, until this month at least, plus the low VIX reading, leads Demmert to expect a 10% stock market correction at some point. "The stock market at large is in overbought territory and investors are very complacent, which was the case prior to the past three major declines within this 18-month bear market. Between the June and September meetings, the Fed would get three more inflation and three more payrolls reports.
Persons: Russell, Scott Ladner, Ladner, James Demmert, that's, Demmert, Jerome Powell's, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Jerome Powell, John Wiley, CNBC's Hakyung Kim, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Fed, CME Group, CPI, Horizon Investments, Street Research, Investors, North, Capital Economics, Capital, UBS, Federal, Philadelphia Fed, Adobe, University of Michigan Locations: Charlotte , North Carolina, SPX, downtrends, North America
"The underlying numbers in the report today show that the Fed can probably feel comfortable with maybe one more rate hike, and then pausing." Or, at least those concerns were true until Friday's explosive rally, when more than six New York Stock Exchange issues rose for every one that fell, and all 11 sectors in the S & P 500 gained. Friday's advance carried the S & P 500 to its highest since Aug. 18, 2022, when the benchmark closed at 4,283.74. Another favorable straw in the wind may simply be the fact that the 11.2% rally in the S & P 500, just since the mid-March lows accompanying the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, is so hated and mistrusted. Week-ahead calendar Monday 9:45 a.m.: S & P Global Services PMI (May) 10 a.m.: Durable goods and factory orders (April) 10 a.m.: ISM services PMI (May) Tuesday Earnings: J.M.
Persons: Megan Horneman, Canaccord Genuity, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Brown, Forman, — CNBC's Alexander Harring, Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Verdence Capital Advisors, Nvidia, New York Stock Exchange, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank of America, P Global Services PMI, PMI, Growers, Ciena, GameStop Locations: Broad, 2H23, Silicon
"The overhangs on the market this year [are] the debt ceiling negotiation, hawkish Fed commentary and a banking crisis. It appears we are going to get a debt ceiling deal over the weekend, which should help the market to stabilize." The problem for many on the Street is the action in the S & P 500 Tech Index, up more than 5% this week; the Nasdaq Composite , ahead about 2.5%; and the S & P 500 , with a 0.3% gain, masks so much weakness beneath the surface. The S & P 500 consumer staples, materials, health care and utilities were all down between 2.4% and 3.2% this week, and the Dow Industrials were lower 1%. Although the S & P 500 is 9.5% higher so far in 2023, only a few stocks are doing well. "
At least that's the thinking of a small but growing chorus of voices on Wall Street who outline the case for further stock market gains after both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched nine-month highs this past week. The VIX was trading around 16-17 late this week, signaling no great fear among professional traders. Walmart and other retailers this week highlighted consumers are spending less freely, but they're still spending , and that drives two thirds of the economy. Even Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote late this week that he has to entertain what could go right in markets, despite the fact his own view is fundamentally bearish. If that "upside scenario" happens, UBS sees global stocks moving 13% higher by the end of December, and the S & P 500 surging another 6% — to north of 4,400.
U.S. stocks may be setting up for a sharp late spring/early summer rally if the U.S. debt ceiling debate is rendered moot, either by an agreement or a decision to kick the can until after Labor Day, a note from JPMorgan’s trading desk said Thursday. That's a contrarian view running counter to the market's latest doldrums, but JPMorgan said the economic backdrop plus the way in which professional investors are positioned may add fuel to any potential advance. The so-called pain trade that catches the greatest number of investors off guard "is higher, specifically if led by cyclical stocks such as energy, financials, industrials and materials. JPMorgan also looks for a potential reversal in financial stocks if deposits don't flee. It notes that the regional bank ETF is 8% below its April average and 64% beneath its year-to-date high and that short interest in financials has ballooned, possibly paving the way for a huge short squeeze.
Good news for markets next week: no default, no credit agency downgrade, no apocalypse. Worrying 2011 precedent Recent history tells investors that stocks will move more violently during a debt ceiling standoff. Retail sales update Debt negotiations aside, investors get updates next week on the state of American consumer spending when April retail sales are reported Tuesday alongside earnings from Home Depot. Deutsche Bank estimates that April retail sales expanded month over month by 0.7%, the market consensus. Credit Suisse is less optimistic, forecasting that April retail sales grew by 0.6%, but, excluding vehicles, were unchanged.
And the list of regional banks with sky-high dividends goes on and on. But Goldman Sachs is out Monday with a note from analysts led by Ryan Nash saying that although regional banks as a group yield 6.5% — the most since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 — not to worry. Examining bank dividends and bank capital "suggests companies should be able to maintain their current payout: Dividend payouts totaled ~40% of EPS in 1Q23 and are expected to remain around those levels for the remainder of 2023 (~39%) and 2024 (~41%) by consensus," Goldman said. KEY (~53%) and TFC (46%) screen as having the highest payouts," as a percentage of earnings in 2023, the investment bank said. Capital One (~24), M & T Bank (~29%) and Zions Bancorp (30%) have among the lowest payout ratios.
For the immediate economic and earnings and growth outlook, it almost seems irrelevant whether regional bank stocks rally, steady or sell off more next week. Regional banks were top of mind for investors this past week, as First Republic failed , the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF tumbled more than 10% — twice the five-day loss in the S & P 500 Energy Index, the hardest hit S & P sector — and lenders such as PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp lost billions in market value. And, for all that, the S & P 500 only fell about 0.75% this week. Now the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that regardless of how the regional bank stocks trade, it's a given that bank lending officers are going to pull in their horns and risk management desks will grow more risk averse. But stocks still face a host of issues, none of which are going away next week.
Maybe Monday's stock market slide shows investors are finally tempering their optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year to counterbalance an economic slowdown. Simply put, investors have bid up stocks since mid-March on a belief that the Fed will pivot policy, and cut rates by half a percentage point in reaction a shallow recession, BofA said. Unfortunately, the bank says such hopes will be dashed. "We see four risks this summer: an ugly debt ceiling battle, a significant tightening of bank credit, a geo-political event and disappointingly hawkish central banks. Hence a mild recession in the US—and flat growth in other major economies—will not trigger an immediate policy response," Harris wrote.
Arista Networks — The cloud networking company slid 7% despite beating analysts' expectations for the first quarter. Arista saw $1.43 in adjusted earnings per share in the quarter on $1.35 billion in revenue, while analysts polled by Refinitiv expected $1.34 per share on $1.31 billion. Separately, the company beat analysts' expectations for adjusted earnings per share and revenue in the first quarter, according to Refinitiv. Diamondback reported $4.10 in earnings per share, less than the $4.33 consensus estimate of analysts polled by FactSet. The company posted 44 cents in adjusted earnings per share, smashing the consensus estimate of 10 cents per share, according to Refinitiv.
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